Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research Jeffrey Schultz, Chief CEEMEA Economist Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  Niccolo Carrara, Emerging Markets EconomistBNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 04 January 2024) • There are significant pockets of vulnerability in countries’ ability to respond to physical risks related to climate change, according to our new BNP Paribas climate adaptation readiness scores. • Some of the weakest scores are in south Asia, as well as in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. • Agriculture’s exposure to water stress is a potential source of global inflation volatility. • In the short term, a potentially strong El Niño episode might keep food prices elevated. • In the medium term, without sufficient adaptation, the agricultural sector might suffer unexpected losses and cost pressures due to climate change. • EM governments face the prospect of responding to more frequent food supply shocks and investing in climate adaptation against the backdrop of severely depleted fiscal capacity.For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With: Niccolo Carrara, Economist, Emerging Markets | BNP Paribas London Branch   This podcast was recorded  9 November 2023 Artificial intelligence provides some threats to emerging markets, we think. To avoid sharp distortion across countries, regulation requires harmonisation at the global level, which could be hard to find amid US-China geopolitical tensions. An unequitable distribution of benefits from AI, potentially aggravating income inequality, is likely to be a major hurdle. Notwithstanding these threats, AI also offers scope for meaningful productivity gains in some sectors, particularly those that are able to adapt quickly. We argue it is time for some EM to broaden their focus beyond manufacturing-based export-led growth For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf   Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US  Andrew Husby, Senior Economist, US   BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 October 2023)   The US consumer has powered ahead this year, but we see several factors that could slow spending in the near term. Most lower and middle-income households have depleted their excess savings, while interest payments as a share of income look set to approach levels last seen ahead of the global financial crisis.  We expect consumer spending growth to slow sharply this quarter, to just 0.5% q/q saar from a 3.6% Q3 pace. For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb    For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research  Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst   BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 18 August 2023)  Physical climate risk is rising in intensity and frequency globally.  (Re)insurance plays the essential role of shock absorber, protecting from a natural disaster’s second-round impacts on economic activity and the wider financial system.  However, given increasing and more chronic insured losses, the protection gap is rising, leaving parts of the economy and of the world highly vulnerable.  There is room for (re)insurers, high-risk industries, public sector and regulators to mitigate risk and seize opportunities, we argue.  For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US  Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US Andrew Husby, Senior Economist, US  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 03 August 2023)  We expect household excess savings – which has bolstered consumer spending over the last eighteen months – be depleted by the end of this year. Watch for more price elastic consumer spending as households become increasingly dependent on paycheck income. For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf   Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Pamela Díaz Loubet, Economist, Mexico Debora Luncaorte, Economist, Mexico  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 July 2023)  We discuss Mexico’s disinflation process, its risks and implications for the monetary policy path in  the country. For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 June 2023)  Analysts looking for an easing of lending conditions in the 2nd quarter may be in for a surprise based on the latest banking conditions survey from the 11th Fed district. Ongoing financial sector stress poses a brisk head wind to economic activity and may very well factor into monetary policymakers’ assessment of the appropriate fed funds terminal rate.  For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 13 June 2023)  Water has been rising on the agenda of sustainable investors this year. We address some of the main questions/challenges in this episode. Access to clean freshwater has generally been taken for granted, leading to wastage and pollution. However, with increasing supply chain transparency and greater focus on water quality, practices are coming under closer scrutiny. A number of opportunities exist in the space, with room for innovation throughout the water cycle, adoption of circular business models, and public-private partnerships.  For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Niccolo Carrara, Emerging Markets Economist  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 07 June 2023)  Our property update suggests there are still downside risks to house prices globally, especially in a scenario of tighter-than-expected financial conditions. Residential housing prices remain elevated in level terms, hurting affordability and investor sentiment. Our indicator suggests housing unaffordability is particularly acute in Southeast Asia, with a potential knock-on political and socio-economic effect. Economies with high levels of household debt and a large share of it issued at floating rates, such as in South Korea, are also more vulnerable to higher mortgage burdens, and at greater risk of a wave of defaults. With rate cuts an obvious prerequisite for lower mortgage rates, demand for borrowing is likely to weaken further in developed markets, where central banks have not yet completed their tightening cycles. For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Jeffrey Schultz, Chief Economist, Middle East and Africa  Nic Borain, Politics Analyst, South Africa  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 07 June 2023)  South Africa is accused by US ambassador of helping to arm Russia, as several negative risk (loadshedding) spike     For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.