In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, discusses the potential disconnect between the stock market rebound and the risk of US economic growth slowing down.   Stock market rebound and economic reality: Despite a strong 20% rebound in US equities following tariff-related declines, survey data (consumer and business confidence) suggests a sharp slowdown in US economic growth may be ahead—highlighting a disconnect between markets and fundamentals. Mixed economic signals: While sentiment indicators are weak, hard data like retail sales and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator still point to solid growth (~2.5% in Q2). However, the delayed impact of higher tariffs could weigh on consumption from June onward. Energy prices as a buffer: Falling energy costs (e.g., US gasoline down 16% YoY) are helping to contain inflation and support growth in both the US and Europe, offsetting some inflationary pressure from tariffs. Infrastructure as a standout asset class: Listed infrastructure funds and ETFs are outperforming equities year-to-date, especially in Europe (+21% in EUR). Sub-sectors like electricity networks, clean water, and clean energy are benefiting from policy support and renewed investor interest. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer et Guy Ertz, Deputy Global Chief Investment Officer, discutent de la situation actuelle de l'économie suisse et de ses marchés financiers.  Focus sur la croissance économique et les perspectives concernant la devise suisse Quelles sont les actions mises en place par la Banque nationale suisse pour se protéger du risque de déflation et gérer la force de la devise ? Perspectives de marchés concernant les taux et les rendements pour les prochains mois Les opportunités sur les marchés obligataires et actions suisses. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer and Guy Ertz, Deputy Global Chief Investment Officer, discuss Switzerland’s economy and financial markets.   Economic growth and currency prospects in Switzerland What is the Swiss National Bank doing to tackle deflation risks and manage currency strengh? Market expectations for rates and yields in the coming months.  Opportunities in Swiss bond and equity markets. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, BNP Paribas Wealth Management, explains a simple investing system that investors can execute themselves on a monthly basis and that has very encouraging long-term results.   How does the system determine whether to invest in stocks or bonds at the end of each month? What were the average annual returns and risk characteristics of this system compared with a buy-and-hold strategy for the S&P 500 between 1972 and 2019? Performance of this investment strategy perform when applied to foreign stocks and gold. What are the specific recommendations for the month of May based on this system for US stocks, foreign stocks, and gold? Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Chief Investment Officer of BNP Paribas Wealth Management, encourages investors to ride out the current volatility and difficult patch in the markets by focusing on the long term.   Why are we seeing volatility in the markets? Taking stock of the 12-month performances What could trigger a further rebound in stock markets in the short term? Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, discusses the challenges of predicting recessions, the significance of the VIX volatility index, and investment recommendations for navigating uncertain economic times. Difficulty in predicting recessions - Economists historically struggle with forecasting the timing of recessions due to the complexity of business cycles. Stock market as a recession Indicator - The stock market is highlighted as a potential predictor of recessions, typically looking 6 to 12 months ahead. However, it also produces many false signals through market corrections that do not necessarily indicate a recession VIX Volatility Index - Historically, when the VIX exceeds 50 and then declines to under 30, it has been followed by positive stock market returns. This pattern has occurred in 1988, 2002, 2009, and 2020,with an average S&P 500 return of 18% over the following 12 months Investment Recommendations: instead of focusing on the Nasdaq 100 or the classic capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index, investors should consider an equal-weight US stock market index to reduce bias towards tech stocks, as well as UK, Japanese and Chinese stocks.  Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Dans ce podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, dévoile sa stratégie d'investissement pour avril 2025 :   Hausse massive des droits de douane américains : il s'agit de l'une des plus importantes augmentations de droits de douane dans l'histoire des États-Unis. Leur taux effectif passera probablement d'environ 2,5 % avant Trump 2.0 à 22 %. Il s'agit du niveau le plus élevé depuis 1910. Les droits de douane annoncés sont nettement plus élevés que ce que nous ou le marché avions anticipé. Risque accru d'un scénario de stagflation pour l'économie américaine. La saison des résultats du premier trimestre ainsi que les enquêtes auprès des entreprises et des consommateurs seront importantes à surveiller en raison des risques pour l'emploi et les investissements. Cela suggère une approche plus prudente de l'allocation d'actifs dans les mois à venir. L'incertitude élevée soutient la demande de bons du Trésor américain : la tendance à la baisse des rendements aux États-Unis devrait se poursuivre. Les investisseurs chercheront à se réfugier dans des actifs sûrs. Nous sommes tactiquement positifs sur les bons du Trésor américain et avons révisé notre objectif à trois mois pour le rendement à 10 ans à 4 %. Il convient d'être plus prudent sur les actions :  l'annonce tarifaire du 2 avril a des répercussions clairement négatives sur la croissance mondiale et pourrait même entraîner un risque de stagflation pour l'économie américaine Nous ramenons notre opinion sur les actions de "Surpondérer" à "Neutre". Pression sur les bénéfices des entreprises américaines : les effets des annonces tarifaires devraient avoir des impacts négatifs sur la consommation tout en augmentant les coûts des intrants des entreprises, ce qui mettra sous pression les marges bénéficiaires. Nous ramenons notre opinion sur le marché d’actions américaines de “Neutre" à “Sous-pondéré". Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer of BNP Paribas Wealth Management unveils his convictions for April 2025:   Massive US tariff hike: this represents one of the biggest tariff increases in the history of the US. It will probably take the effective tariff rate from around 2.5% pre-Trump 2.0 to 22% currently. This is highest level since 1910. The announced tariffs are significantly larger than either we or the market had anticipated. Greater risk of a stagflation scenario for the US economy. The upcoming Q1 earnings season as well as business and consumer surveys will be important to monitor in view of the risks for employment and investments. This suggest a more cautious approach to asset allocation in the coming months. Elevated uncertainty supports US Treasury bond demand: the trend towards lower yields in the US is likely to persist. Investors will seek refuge in safe-haven assets. We are tactically turning Positive on US Treasuries and have revised our 3-month target for the US 10-year yield to 4%. More caution on stocks warranted: the result of yesterday’s tariff announcement is clearly negative for growth on a global basis and even  carries the risk of stagflation for the US economy. We downgrade our Equities view from Overweight to Neutral. Pressure on US corporate earnings: the effects from the tariff announcements should have negative impacts on consumption while driving up companies’ input costs, pressuring profit margins. We downgrade our view on the US equity market from Neutral to Underweight. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, discusses the risks to the American stock market from shifting foreign investor flows. Foreign investors have significantly increased their holdings in US financial assets, totaling 10 trillion dollars between 2020 and 2024, with European investors holding 49% of these assets. The S&P 500 is currently expensive at 20x forward PE compared with its long-term average of 16x, while the eurozone and Japan markets are fairly valued or cheap. There is a “double whammy” risk for US equities as foreign investors may reduce exposure due to under-performance, high valuations and a weakening US dollar, potentially leading to further derating and currency losses. We prefer US stock exposure via the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, along with rebalancing towards international stocks in the UK, eurozone, Japan, and possibly China. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Dans ce podcast, Jeremy Fasquelle et Edouard Desbonnets, Senior Investment Strategist, discutent des risques pour le marché boursier américain liés aux flux d'investisseurs étrangers fluctuant Les investisseurs étrangers ont considérablement augmenté leurs avoirs en actifs financiers américains, totalisant 10 trillions de dollars entre 2020 et 2024, les investisseurs européens détenant 49 % de ces actifs. Le S&P 500 est actuellement survalorisé avec un ratio cours/bénéfice (PE) de 20x par rapport à sa moyenne à long terme de 16x, tandis que les marchés de la zone euro et du Japon sont correctement évalués ou bon marché. Nous préférons l'exposition aux actions américaines via l'indice S&P 500 pondéré de manière égale, ainsi qu'un rééquilibrage vers les actions internationales au Royaume-Uni, dans la zone euro, au Japon et possiblement en Chine. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.