In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, discusses the challenges of predicting recessions, the significance of the VIX volatility index, and investment recommendations for navigating uncertain economic times. Difficulty in predicting recessions - Economists historically struggle with forecasting the timing of recessions due to the complexity of business cycles. Stock market as a recession Indicator - The stock market is highlighted as a potential predictor of recessions, typically looking 6 to 12 months ahead. However, it also produces many false signals through market corrections that do not necessarily indicate a recession VIX Volatility Index - Historically, when the VIX exceeds 50 and then declines to under 30, it has been followed by positive stock market returns. This pattern has occurred in 1988, 2002, 2009, and 2020,with an average S&P 500 return of 18% over the following 12 months Investment Recommendations: instead of focusing on the Nasdaq 100 or the classic capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index, investors should consider an equal-weight US stock market index to reduce bias towards tech stocks, as well as UK, Japanese and Chinese stocks.  Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Dans ce podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, dévoile sa stratégie d'investissement pour avril 2025 :   Hausse massive des droits de douane américains : il s'agit de l'une des plus importantes augmentations de droits de douane dans l'histoire des États-Unis. Leur taux effectif passera probablement d'environ 2,5 % avant Trump 2.0 à 22 %. Il s'agit du niveau le plus élevé depuis 1910. Les droits de douane annoncés sont nettement plus élevés que ce que nous ou le marché avions anticipé. Risque accru d'un scénario de stagflation pour l'économie américaine. La saison des résultats du premier trimestre ainsi que les enquêtes auprès des entreprises et des consommateurs seront importantes à surveiller en raison des risques pour l'emploi et les investissements. Cela suggère une approche plus prudente de l'allocation d'actifs dans les mois à venir. L'incertitude élevée soutient la demande de bons du Trésor américain : la tendance à la baisse des rendements aux États-Unis devrait se poursuivre. Les investisseurs chercheront à se réfugier dans des actifs sûrs. Nous sommes tactiquement positifs sur les bons du Trésor américain et avons révisé notre objectif à trois mois pour le rendement à 10 ans à 4 %. Il convient d'être plus prudent sur les actions :  l'annonce tarifaire du 2 avril a des répercussions clairement négatives sur la croissance mondiale et pourrait même entraîner un risque de stagflation pour l'économie américaine Nous ramenons notre opinion sur les actions de "Surpondérer" à "Neutre". Pression sur les bénéfices des entreprises américaines : les effets des annonces tarifaires devraient avoir des impacts négatifs sur la consommation tout en augmentant les coûts des intrants des entreprises, ce qui mettra sous pression les marges bénéficiaires. Nous ramenons notre opinion sur le marché d’actions américaines de “Neutre" à “Sous-pondéré". Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer of BNP Paribas Wealth Management unveils his convictions for April 2025:   Massive US tariff hike: this represents one of the biggest tariff increases in the history of the US. It will probably take the effective tariff rate from around 2.5% pre-Trump 2.0 to 22% currently. This is highest level since 1910. The announced tariffs are significantly larger than either we or the market had anticipated. Greater risk of a stagflation scenario for the US economy. The upcoming Q1 earnings season as well as business and consumer surveys will be important to monitor in view of the risks for employment and investments. This suggest a more cautious approach to asset allocation in the coming months. Elevated uncertainty supports US Treasury bond demand: the trend towards lower yields in the US is likely to persist. Investors will seek refuge in safe-haven assets. We are tactically turning Positive on US Treasuries and have revised our 3-month target for the US 10-year yield to 4%. More caution on stocks warranted: the result of yesterday’s tariff announcement is clearly negative for growth on a global basis and even  carries the risk of stagflation for the US economy. We downgrade our Equities view from Overweight to Neutral. Pressure on US corporate earnings: the effects from the tariff announcements should have negative impacts on consumption while driving up companies’ input costs, pressuring profit margins. We downgrade our view on the US equity market from Neutral to Underweight. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, discusses the risks to the American stock market from shifting foreign investor flows. Foreign investors have significantly increased their holdings in US financial assets, totaling 10 trillion dollars between 2020 and 2024, with European investors holding 49% of these assets. The S&P 500 is currently expensive at 20x forward PE compared with its long-term average of 16x, while the eurozone and Japan markets are fairly valued or cheap. There is a “double whammy” risk for US equities as foreign investors may reduce exposure due to under-performance, high valuations and a weakening US dollar, potentially leading to further derating and currency losses. We prefer US stock exposure via the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, along with rebalancing towards international stocks in the UK, eurozone, Japan, and possibly China. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Dans ce podcast, Jeremy Fasquelle et Edouard Desbonnets, Senior Investment Strategist, discutent des risques pour le marché boursier américain liés aux flux d'investisseurs étrangers fluctuant Les investisseurs étrangers ont considérablement augmenté leurs avoirs en actifs financiers américains, totalisant 10 trillions de dollars entre 2020 et 2024, les investisseurs européens détenant 49 % de ces actifs. Le S&P 500 est actuellement survalorisé avec un ratio cours/bénéfice (PE) de 20x par rapport à sa moyenne à long terme de 16x, tandis que les marchés de la zone euro et du Japon sont correctement évalués ou bon marché. Nous préférons l'exposition aux actions américaines via l'indice S&P 500 pondéré de manière égale, ainsi qu'un rééquilibrage vers les actions internationales au Royaume-Uni, dans la zone euro, au Japon et possiblement en Chine. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, discusses the bearish sentiment among US investors and the possible implications for future returns from US stocks.   Performance of the Nasdaq 100 tech heavy index since mid-February What does the AAII Weekly Retail Investor Sentiment Survey reveal? How have contrarian indicators historically coincided with lows in the S&P 500 index? What is the current outlook for the S&P 500 index over the next six months? Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Edmund Shing, Chief Investment Officer of BNP Paribas Wealth Management, discusses market corrections. Past market corrections Triggers of the current S&P 500 index correction Are we headed for an economic recession in the US? What are measures of risk in the financial markets showing? Why we think investors should not panic Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Edmund Shing, Chief Investment Officer, challenges the conventional wisdom around American exceptionalism. ·         Is the US really so exceptional and can this exceptionalism really continue over the long term? ·         Analysis of US stock performance ·         Should investors look to other regions? ·         The commoditisation of AI: who wins, who loses? Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this podcast, our Chief Investment Officer in Asia, Prashant Bhayani shares our latest view on DeepSeek development, addressing the following questions:   ■ Implications of DeepSeek on global technology sector?   ■ Can global investors ignore China equities?   ■ What is the upside from here? Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Dans ce podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, dévoile ses convictions pour février 2025   Les droits de douane de Trump Impact des tarifs douaniers sur l'économie mondiale DeepSeek bouleverse le secteur de l'IA Changement de leadership sur le marché avec les banques et l'industrie en tête Principales recommandations pour février 2025 Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.