Description
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Gold futures just hit $4,700 an ounce — up nearly 40% over the past year — and Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan, and Tony Battista aren't buying the Treasury buyback explanation. They get into whether the real driver is something a bond program was never built to fix, how oil pulled back even with the Strait of Hormuz running at 10% of normal traffic, and what the new 50% US-Canada tariffs actually mean for traders on both sides. The desk breaks down what a 59% probability model really signals, when going outright futures beats options, and why the S&P put/call skew collapse from two weeks ago played out almost exactly as predicted. Callers include a Dave Ramsey mortgage debate that splits the room and an IRA trader trying to find his best premium-selling path with no margin relief.
#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #gold #bitcoin #optionstrading #stockmarket
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:05 Market open: S&P, NASDAQ, Gold, Oil
3:16 Gold at $4,700 — Is the Treasury buyback enough?
4:59 Oil pulls back despite Hormuz disruption
5:59 US-Canada 50% tariffs: short-term tactic or structural shift?
9:17 When does a 59% probability model earn your conviction?
12:48 Futures vs. options — when to go outright
28:36 Pete Crow-Armstrong NL MVP odds breakdown
34:01 Trades of the week: GLD and ZB strangles
44:04 Host handoff — Tom joins the desk
47:53 Caller: Pay off your mortgage early or invest the difference?
1:05:06 Crude oil vs. gold: trade price, not headlines
1:22:48 S&P skew collapse — what the market was really saying
1:28:11 Bitcoin poll: $69K or $89K next?
Gold at $4,700 sits at the intersection of two things happening at once: a Treasury buyback program credited for pushing bond prices higher, and a broader market asking whether that policy is powerful enough to explain why money keeps moving into hard assets at this pace. Bitcoin hovering near $80K with the community split almost evenly on what comes next mirrors the same underlying question — is this a crowd getting comfortable, or a crowd getting crowded? The US-Canada tariff standoff hitting 50% on autos, alcohol, and dairy, with Ottawa matching dollar-for-dollar, is a live test of whether tariffs are still a negotiating chip or the beginning of a structurally more expensive trade relationship. And the S&P put/call skew collapse from two weeks ago — which preceded a 2-5% selloff depending on which index you follow — is a reminder that market complacency leaves fingerprints in the options chain before it shows up in the price.
ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG
One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.
Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.
The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.
📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT
📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG
📧 oneluckydog@lossdog.com
🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdog
Everyone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your...
Gold futures just hit $4,700 an ounce — up nearly 40% over the past year — and Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan, and Tony Battista aren't buying the Treasury buyback explanation. They get into whether the real driver is something a bond program was never built to fix, how oil pulled back even with the Strait of Hormuz running at 10% of normal traffic, and what the new 50% US-Canada tariffs actually mean for traders on both sides. The desk breaks down what a 59% probability model really signals, when going outright futures beats options, and why the S&P put/call skew collapse from two weeks ago played out almost exactly as predicted. Callers include a Dave Ramsey mortgage debate that splits the room and an IRA trader trying to find his best premium-selling path with no margin relief.
#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #gold #bitcoin #optionstrading #stockmarket
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:05 Market open: S&P, NASDAQ, Gold, Oil
3:16 Gold at $4,700 — Is the Treasury buyback enough?
4:59 Oil pulls back despite Hormuz disruption
5:59 US-Canada 50% tariffs: short-term tactic or structural shift?
9:17 When does a 59% probability model earn your conviction?
12:48 Futures vs. options — when to go outright
28:36 Pete Crow-Armstrong NL MVP odds breakdown
34:01 Trades of the week: GLD and ZB strangles
44:04 Host handoff — Tom joins the desk
47:53 Caller: Pay off your mortgage early or invest the difference?
1:05:06 Crude oil vs. gold: trade price, not headlines
1:22:48 S&P skew collapse — what the market was really saying
1:28:11 Bitcoin poll: $69K or $89K next?
Gold at $4,700 sits at the intersection of two things happening at once: a Treasury buyback program credited for pushing bond prices higher, and a broader market asking whether that policy is powerful enough to explain why money keeps moving into hard assets at this pace. Bitcoin hovering near $80K with the community split almost evenly on what comes next mirrors the same underlying question — is this a crowd getting comfortable, or a crowd getting crowded? The US-Canada tariff standoff hitting 50% on autos, alcohol, and dairy, with Ottawa matching dollar-for-dollar, is a live test of whether tariffs are still a negotiating chip or the beginning of a structurally more expensive trade relationship. And the S&P put/call skew collapse from two weeks ago — which preceded a 2-5% selloff depending on which index you follow — is a reminder that market complacency leaves fingerprints in the options chain before it shows up in the price.
ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG
One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.
Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.
The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.
📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT
📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG
📧 oneluckydog@lossdog.com
🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdog
Everyone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your...
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