Description
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Tom Sosnoff and Scott Sheridan open this Labor Day week edition live as the market gets unsettled — bonds getting hammered, September rate hike odds jumping from 35% to over 60% overnight, and NASDAQ barely holding everything else together. They get into whether AI infrastructure capex is a genuine paradigm shift or just the cycle's shiniest new obsession, break down earnings expected moves for Nvidia and Crowdstrike, and walk through Tom's contrarian trades of the week in Walmart, Microsoft, Intel, and soybeans. Then Liz Dierking — longtime tastylive co-host, long-time friend of Tom, Scott, and Tony Battista, and now part of the Liz and Jenny Show — stops by completely unannounced and lights up the room, sharing her Bitcoin and crypto ETF approach, SPX zero-DTE put ratio setups, and bond positioning thoughts alongside all three hosts. The show closes out with a deep session on probability of touch versus probability of expiring — including the origin story of how thinkorswim was the first platform to ever put that number on a screen — plus callers who mostly just want to say hi to Liz, and end-of-day S&P predictions.
#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #optionstrading #bitcoin #ratehike #federalreserve
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Show open
1:27 Live market open and prices
6:24 AI infrastructure spending: signal or noise?
11:04 Position sizing: what 1-3% net liq actually means
32:33 Nostradogus: college football picks
34:16 Tom's trades of the week
44:16 Earnings expected moves — did the options market miss?
49:41 September rate hike odds hit 60%
52:44 Liz Dierking stops by
1:02:07 Bitcoin at $80K — IBIT, ETHA, and crypto strategy
1:14:22 Probability of touch vs. probability of expiring
1:22:36 thinkorswim and the origin of probability of touch
1:25:34 Final market recap and end-of-day predictions
September carries one of the most unusual tensions in the financial calendar — historically the weakest month for equities, yet home to the strongest options expiration cycle of the year, with traders rolling from September to December futures contracts in the second week. The Fed watch tool ticking above 60% odds of a rate hike creates a classic price puzzle: if every market participant already sees that number, how much of it is already in the bond? Bitcoin's compression around $80K — well off its all-time highs north of $120K — signals a more institutionalized crypto landscape, where ETF wrappers like IBIT and ETHA are quietly becoming the smarter vehicle for options strategies than owning coins outright. And the debate over whether AI infrastructure spending is a transformational shift or just the cycle's current obsession echoes a long line of Wall Street paradigm shifts — from dot-era eyeball counts to EBITDA multiples to whatever comes next — a reminder that the metric everyone's screaming about today is rarely the one that actually lasts.
ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG
One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.
Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.
The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop le...
Tom Sosnoff and Scott Sheridan open this Labor Day week edition live as the market gets unsettled — bonds getting hammered, September rate hike odds jumping from 35% to over 60% overnight, and NASDAQ barely holding everything else together. They get into whether AI infrastructure capex is a genuine paradigm shift or just the cycle's shiniest new obsession, break down earnings expected moves for Nvidia and Crowdstrike, and walk through Tom's contrarian trades of the week in Walmart, Microsoft, Intel, and soybeans. Then Liz Dierking — longtime tastylive co-host, long-time friend of Tom, Scott, and Tony Battista, and now part of the Liz and Jenny Show — stops by completely unannounced and lights up the room, sharing her Bitcoin and crypto ETF approach, SPX zero-DTE put ratio setups, and bond positioning thoughts alongside all three hosts. The show closes out with a deep session on probability of touch versus probability of expiring — including the origin story of how thinkorswim was the first platform to ever put that number on a screen — plus callers who mostly just want to say hi to Liz, and end-of-day S&P predictions.
#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #optionstrading #bitcoin #ratehike #federalreserve
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Show open
1:27 Live market open and prices
6:24 AI infrastructure spending: signal or noise?
11:04 Position sizing: what 1-3% net liq actually means
32:33 Nostradogus: college football picks
34:16 Tom's trades of the week
44:16 Earnings expected moves — did the options market miss?
49:41 September rate hike odds hit 60%
52:44 Liz Dierking stops by
1:02:07 Bitcoin at $80K — IBIT, ETHA, and crypto strategy
1:14:22 Probability of touch vs. probability of expiring
1:22:36 thinkorswim and the origin of probability of touch
1:25:34 Final market recap and end-of-day predictions
September carries one of the most unusual tensions in the financial calendar — historically the weakest month for equities, yet home to the strongest options expiration cycle of the year, with traders rolling from September to December futures contracts in the second week. The Fed watch tool ticking above 60% odds of a rate hike creates a classic price puzzle: if every market participant already sees that number, how much of it is already in the bond? Bitcoin's compression around $80K — well off its all-time highs north of $120K — signals a more institutionalized crypto landscape, where ETF wrappers like IBIT and ETHA are quietly becoming the smarter vehicle for options strategies than owning coins outright. And the debate over whether AI infrastructure spending is a transformational shift or just the cycle's current obsession echoes a long line of Wall Street paradigm shifts — from dot-era eyeball counts to EBITDA multiples to whatever comes next — a reminder that the metric everyone's screaming about today is rarely the one that actually lasts.
ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG
One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.
Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.
The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop le...
