A special edition of Amundi’s monthly Convictions podcast focusing on the outlook for developed markets in 2024. The theme of renewed global disorder has been a topic of conversation for some years, emerging from a convergence of ideological, economic, political and technological transitions. These transitions spread uncertainty on a global scale and have a knock-on effect on how and when policymakers react. 2024 will be a year of transition, of turning tides, in growth, inflation and monetary policy.    Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, take a closer look at Amundi’s outlook for 2024 and what this new global disorder means for markets and investments. What are the main expectations for 2024 in terms of growth across the main regions? When should we expect central banks to start cutting rates? They also discuss some of the main investment risks from the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and its implications for asset allocation. They finish by taking broader look at some of the investment opportunities that may arise from longer term themes. 

This emerging markets outlook special edition looks ahead to 2024. While a slowdown is expected in developed markets, emerging markets (EM) are likely to prove more resilient next year with the growth premium over developed markets continuing to widen.  Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Vincent Mortier, Amundi’s Group Chief Investment Officer and Yerlan Syzdykov, Global Head of Emerging Markets at Amundi to find out what’s in store and why 2024 is expected to be a year of two halves for emerging markets. They discuss what the forecasts might mean for EM equities, hard and local currency fixed income and FX. They take a closer look at the prospects for the Asian superpowers of China and India and consider which regions and countries might benefit or lose out amid increased global fragmentation and the critical issue of energy transition.

Against the backdrop of recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sat down earlier this week to discuss the big themes that are dominating markets. In addition to the ongoing geopolitical risks, they spoke in depth about recession concerns as well as how much they expect the U.S. and European economies to slow. This month’s podcast finishes with a look at the outlook for fixed income and equities and some of the challenges for which investors need to watch out.  Discover more on the article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-november-2023 

Payment habits have evolved dramatically over the last few decades. The use of cash has been shrinking for some time, but this phenomenon was rapidly accelerated by the Covid crisis. In parallel, technological advances have seen the use of digital currencies become more popular amongst consumers and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin become household names. In response to this dramatic rise in the use of decentralised money, many central banks have been exploring the launch of their own central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Join Swaha Pattanaik and Tristan Perrier, Macroeconomist & Investment Insights Specialist with the Amundi Investment Institute, as they delve into the world of CBDCs. What are they exactly and why are they being developed? They take a closer look at the development of CBDCs around the world and examine some of the risks and implications of this type of digital currency, as well as their potential benefits.    Discover CBDCs: where do the projects and debates stand? https://research-center.amundi.com/article/cbdcs-where-do-project-and-debate-stand

Autumn made a hasty arrival to Europe in mid-September and it was accompanied by a multitude of monetary policy meetings. The current tightening cycle has seen plenty of interest rate hikes. But this new round of meetings show how central banks appear undecided on their next steps in light of the mixed signals coming from their economies. What will this cautious stance from central banks mean for the world’s economies?  Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, sat down earlier this week to discuss the expectations for growth in major economies in the coming months. They talk about the possible implications of the recent spike in energy prices and what we should expect for interest rate policies around the world for the rest of the year. This month’s episode finishes with a look at the outlook for fixed income and equities and some of the challenges for which investors need to watch out.  Discover more on the article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-october-2023 

For many, September has a back to school feel about it after a long break and is often the chance for a bit of a refresh. This summer, markets certainly weren’t on holiday, as August saw corrections and volatility, whilst there was also further softening in economic data, particularly in Europe and China.  Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catch-up to discuss the key economic developments that emerged over the summer and the outlook for the next few months. How will policymakers react as they continue to balance fighting inflation against economic slowdown? Is the resilience seen in the US likely to continue and what are the growth and inflation expectations for the major global economies? They also examine what these forecasts would imply for portfolios across the different asset classes.  Discover more on the article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-september-2023

Whilst fashion trends regularly make come-backs, revivals in economic trends are a lot less frequent. The double-digit inflation rates seen over the past two years have left many wondering whether other hallmarks of the 1970s are also due for a return and what can be learnt from previous missteps as we transition to a new economic model.  Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Tristan Perrier, Macroeconomist & Investment Insights Specialist with the Amundi Institute, as he reflects on some of the similarities and the differences between the two periods and examines some of the risks faced as policymakers try to bring inflation back to target. They also discuss how the current period of high inflation could pave the way for a transition in a new direction and look forward to what a structurally higher level of inflation could mean for monetary and fiscal policy. Finally, they review the potential long and short term investment implications of these different economic scenarios.   Discover 2020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replay article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/2020s-vs-1970s-echoes-not-replay 

After months of rising rates, there could be good news for central banks as we start to see signs that inflation is finally cooling down.     Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, discuss the main trends impacting global monetary policy cycle, taking a closer look at the desynchronisation between Developed and Emerging Markets. Discover the Global Investment Views - August 2023 article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-august-2023  -------------------------------  DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

Geopolitics has become an ever increasing concern for financial markets over the past few years. Fractures and shifts in alliances are transforming the global economy and trade relationships.    Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Anna Rosenberg, Amundi’s Head of Geopolitics, and Francesco Sandrini, Amundi’s Head of Multi-Asset Strategies to discuss whether we’ve now reached a “new normal” and what some of the implications will be for investment flows both now and in the years ahead. They take a closer look at the pivotal relationship between the world’s two biggest economies, the USA and China, and examine how trade has evolved, particularly in terms of exploiting natural resources. Find out which sectors and geographies will be most impacted by the evolving relationships and who will be the overall winners and losers in this geopolitical struggle. Discover Geopolitical shifts shaping investments article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/geopolitical-shifts-and-investment-implications 

This month’s episode is a special focus on the macro-economic outlook and investment themes for 2023 and beyond. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, discuss Amundi’s expectations for growth and inflation for the coming months and what this might mean for central bank monetary policy.      Monica also shares some of the things featuring on her crowded Wall of Worries this month, and talks about some of the areas and asset classes to watch in terms of investment opportunities in the rest of the year.