Transcription

• Speaker #0

  Hello, welcome back to Papers with Backtest podcast. Today we're going to dive into another Algo trading research paper.

• Speaker #1

  Cool.

• Speaker #0

  This one is called Market States and Momentum. Okay. By Cooper Gutierrez and Hamid.

• Speaker #1

  Got it.

• Speaker #0

  And, you know, you might be familiar with the momentum effect. Yeah. The idea that stocks that have performed well recently tend to continue outperforming.

• Speaker #1

  Right.

• Speaker #0

  But what if I told you that this well-known strategy doesn't work all the time. This paper suggests that the momentum effect is much stronger in certain market environments than others.

• Speaker #1

  Oh, that's interesting.

• Speaker #0

  Yeah. So this is one of the things that we're going to kind of dig into today.

• Speaker #1

  Yeah. I'm curious about this because like you said, a lot of people just assume that momentum is always there. Buy the winners, sell the losers. Right. And it's a simple strategy. Yeah. But I have a feeling that there's more to the story.

• Speaker #0

  There is more to the story. And this paper is kind of revealing some of those complexities. Okay. So let's break down how they actually did that. Imagine you're looking at all the stocks on the NYSE and Amex each month.

• Speaker #1

  Okay.

• Speaker #0

  You rank them based on how well they've done over the past six months. Six months. Got it. And then you grab the top 10% performers. Yeah. Those are your winners. Winners. And the bottom 10%, the losers.

• Speaker #1

  Losers. Classic.

• Speaker #0

  Yeah. So far, this is classic momentum trading. Right. Buy the winners and short the losers. Right. Betting that the recent trend will continue.

• Speaker #1

  Hoping that it continues. Yeah.

• Speaker #0

  Here's where it gets interesting. Oh. Instead of just applying this strategy blindly, the researchers split the market into two states. Okay. UP markets and down markets. Got it. Think of it as categorizing the market by its long-term mood.

• Speaker #1

  I like that, long-term mood.

• Speaker #0

  Yeah. A UP market means the stock market has had a positive return over the past three years.

• Speaker #1

  Okay.

• Speaker #0

  And a down market is when the return has been negative over that same period.

• Speaker #1

  Three years. Okay, so it's a longer-term trend that they're looking at.

• Speaker #0

  Exactly.

• Speaker #1

  To define these states.

• Speaker #0

  Exactly. So they're basically saying, hey, even though we're using a short term momentum strategy, let's factor in the long term trend of the market, too.

• Speaker #1

  Right. It's like the bigger picture. The context. The context. Exactly. And that's where the aha moment hits. OK. They ran the same momentum strategy in both UP and down end markets. Right. And found a massive difference in the results. I bet. This is where it gets really juicy.

• Speaker #0

  OK. Lay it on me.

• Speaker #1

  In U.P. markets, where the market had been generally positive for three years, The momentum strategy did great. Okay. Earning an average of 0.93% per month.

• Speaker #0

  Wow. Almost a full 1% per month. Yeah. That's impressive.

• Speaker #1

  It's pretty good. Yeah.

• Speaker #0

  Yeah. Especially if it's consistent.

• Speaker #1

  But when they applied the exact same strategy in down markets where the market had been generally negative, it earned almost nothing. Just a measly, manacle 0.37% per month.

• Speaker #0

  So it's like a completely different ballgame.

• Speaker #1

  It's completely different.

• Speaker #0

  Depending on what the market state is, it's like... The market environment acts as a switch that turns the effectiveness of the momentum strategy on or off.

• Speaker #1

  It's like flipping a switch.

• Speaker #0

  Yeah. Wow. And this isn't just some theoretical idea. This was based on real market data.

• Speaker #1

  Yeah, this wasn't just backtesting some hypothetical model. This was like real historical data.

• Speaker #0

  Absolutely. This was a robust study that analyzed decades of stock market data to come to these conclusions.

• Speaker #1

  Okay, so it's pretty solid research then.

• Speaker #0

  It's not just a fluke. Right. So this means that just blindly following a momentum strategy isn't enough.

• Speaker #1

  Right.

• Speaker #0

  You need to be aware of the overall market environment to make the most of it.

• Speaker #1

  Yeah. You have to know when to hit the gas and when to pump the brakes.

• Speaker #0

  You have to know when to hit the gas and when to pump the brakes.

• Speaker #1

  Right. Exactly.

• Speaker #0

  It highlights the importance of market awareness and timing when it comes to momentum trading. Yeah. It's like having a secret weapon that can help you avoid potential losses.

• Speaker #1

  Absolutely.

• Speaker #0

  You don't want to be buying momentum when the market's crashing.

• Speaker #1

  That's probably not a good idea.

• Speaker #0

  Probably not a good idea. Yeah. And that brings up a really important question for traders.

• Speaker #1

  Yeah.

• Speaker #0

  How do you reliably identify whether the market is in a UP or down end state?

• Speaker #1

  That's a great question.

• Speaker #0

  How do we know?

• Speaker #1

  Yeah, because this paper doesn't give us all the answers.

• Speaker #0

  Right. It doesn't give us all the answers.

• Speaker #1

  But it definitely opens up a whole new area for exploration.

• Speaker #0

  It does. Yeah. Now, before we go deeper into the implications of this research, Let's delve into what happens to momentum over the long term. What did they find when they extended their analysis?

• Speaker #1

  Okay. I'm curious about that. Yeah.

• Speaker #0

  Let's find out.

• Speaker #1

  Let's do it. So they extended their analysis to look at returns over much longer periods. Okay. 13 to 60 months.

• Speaker #0

  Wow.

• Speaker #1

  Which is really fascinating.

• Speaker #0

  So they went way beyond the initial six-month momentum window. Yeah. And looked at what happens over several years.

• Speaker #1

  Right. And what they found really adds to the complexity of this whole momentum story. Okay. Remember how the strategy worked beautifully in UP markets in the short term? Well, over these longer periods, those initial momentum profits actually reversed.

• Speaker #0

  Wait, so the winners eventually became losers? Precisely. Even when the overall market was positive?

• Speaker #1

  It's like even in a generally rising tide, there's this underlying tendency for things to eventually revert to a sort of mean.

• Speaker #0

  That's wild. Yeah. What about in Dell and markets? Did those initial losers end up becoming winners?

• Speaker #1

  You might expect that, right? Yeah. But surprisingly, they found a similar reversal in down on markets, too. Even though the momentum strategy didn't generate much profit in the short term during those down on markets. Right. The returns still reversed over the long haul.

• Speaker #0

  So even when the strategy wasn't really working initially, there was still this long term reversal effect.

• Speaker #1

  Yes. It's super interesting because it suggests that there are other forces at play. play besides just the initial overreaction that drives momentum.

• Speaker #0

  Right. Because if it were just overreaction, you'd expect the reversal to be stronger in markets where the initial momentum effect was more pronounced.

• Speaker #1

  Exactly. This finding points to the idea that there might be other deeper factors contributing to these long-term return patterns.

• Speaker #0

  It really gets you thinking. It's like saying there's this invisible hand guiding the market over long periods, regardless of what happens in the short term.

• Speaker #1

  Now, some researchers have argued that these market states, UP and down in, are just a reflection of the overall economic climate. OK. You know, things like interest rates, inflation or economic growth.

• Speaker #0

  The thinking is that these macroeconomic factors influence how investors feel. Right. Which in turn drives the market up or down.

• Speaker #1

  And that makes intuitive sense, doesn't it?

• Speaker #0

  It does. Yeah.

• Speaker #1

  But what's really cool about this paper is that they tested that very idea. OK. They wanted to see if those macroeconomic factors could actually explain the differences in momentum profits between UP and down end markets. They found that those macroeconomic factors don't fully capture the differences we see in momentum across those market states. It's like those factors play a role, but there's something else going on that we need to figure out.

• Speaker #0

  OK, so if it's not just macroeconomics driving this whole thing, what else could it be?

• Speaker #1

  That's a million dollar question. This paper doesn't give us a definitive answer, but it certainly points to the need for more research in this area. It's like a call to action for all the quant researchers out there.

• Speaker #0

  I feel like we need to dig deeper into the psychology and behavior of traders. Explore things like market sentiment and investor confidence.

• Speaker #1

  Precisely.

• Speaker #0

  Because it seems there's more to this puzzle than just economic indicators.

• Speaker #1

  Yeah, it's not just about the numbers. It's about human behavior as well.

• Speaker #0

  This paper has some pretty significant implications for how we approach momentum trading, right?

• Speaker #1

  Absolutely. It's telling us that momentum While it can be a powerful tool, it's not a one-size-fits-all strategy.

• Speaker #0

  It's not like you can just set it and forget it. You need to actively manage it, pay attention to the market environment, and adjust accordingly.

• Speaker #1

  Exactly. The key is to understand how to assess the market state so you know when momentum is likely to work and when it's likely to fail.

• Speaker #0

  So if we're not just relying on macroeconomic factors, like the paper suggests, what tools or indicators could we use? to get a better sense of the market state. Right. What should we be looking at?

• Speaker #1

  Yeah, that's the challenge, isn't it? This paper highlights the need for this extra layer of analysis. Right. But it doesn't explicitly tell us how to do it. Exactly. Like they just say, hey, market states matter. Yeah. But they don't really give us like a step-by-step guide.

• Speaker #0

  Right. The researchers used a specific definition of UP and down in markets based on those three years of past market returns. Right. But that might not be the most practical approach. for traders in the real world. It's like a simplified model to illustrate the concept.

• Speaker #1

  So instead of just looking back three years, you as a trader might experiment with different indicators, timeframes, or even combine multiple signals to get a more accurate and nuanced view of the current market environment.

• Speaker #0

  Exactly. You could look at things like volatility, measures of investor sentiment.

• Speaker #1

  Or even incorporate macroeconomic trends to get a sense of whether the market is more likely to favor momentum strategies or not. Right. You have to adapt the concept to your own trading style and the markets you're trading.

• Speaker #0

  So in a sense, this paper is more of a starting point for exploration than a definitive trading guide.

• Speaker #1

  I think that's a great way to put it. Yeah. It's an invitation to think critically about how market context can influence your trading strategies and to find what works best for you.

• Speaker #0

  And that's what makes this research so valuable. Yeah. It's not just about finding a magic formula. Right. It's about deepening our understanding of the market. and becoming more adaptable traders.

• Speaker #1

  Absolutely. The ability to adapt and adjust your strategies is what separates successful traders from the rest. And this paper gives you a framework for doing just that.

• Speaker #0

  So to bring it all together, the key takeaway for you is that momentum Can be an incredibly powerful force in the market. Yes. But it's not a constant.

• Speaker #1

  It's not always there.

• Speaker #0

  Its effectiveness ebbs and flows with the broader market environment.

• Speaker #1

  And by understanding and incorporating these market states into your analysis, you can fine tune your momentum strategies. Okay. Become more aware of potential risks and ultimately boost your chances of success.

• Speaker #0

  This has been really interesting. I feel like we've really kind of dug deep into this paper.

• Speaker #1

  Yeah, this was a good one.

• Speaker #0

  Thank you for tuning in to Papers with Backtest podcast. We hope today's episode gave you useful insights. Join us next time as we break down more research. And for more papers and backtests, find us at https.paperswithbacktests.com. Happy trading!