Transcription

• Speaker #0

  Hello and welcome back to Papers with Backtest podcast. Today we dive into another algo trading research paper.

• Speaker #1

  Absolutely.

• Speaker #0

  This one's kind of interesting. It explores sector rotation strategies. Yeah. In the U.S. equity market. Okay. And how they connect to the actions of the Federal Reserve.

• Speaker #1

  Interesting.

• Speaker #0

  You know, that mysterious entity that decides whether we get cheap loans or not. Right. Turns out their decisions might be even more relevant to your investment strategy than you think.

• Speaker #1

  For sure. We're going to unpack a paper that backtested a very simple sector rotation strategy based purely on whether the Fed is easing or tightening monetary policy.

• Speaker #0

  Interesting.

• Speaker #1

  And the results are pretty compelling.

• Speaker #0

  Okay. So let's get right to it. What are the trading rules? How do we trade this thing?

• Speaker #1

  So the researchers divided the U.S. market into 10 sectors. Okay. You know, your usual suspects like tech, financials, consumer goods, etc. Right. Six of those were classified as cyclical, meaning... They tend to do well when the economy is booming and poorly when things slow down.

• Speaker #0

  Makes sense.

• Speaker #1

  The other four were defensive sectors. OK. Like utilities and staples, which are more stable regardless of the economic climate. Gotcha. Now, the strategy itself is surprisingly straightforward. When the Fed is easing, meaning they're lowering interest rates, you go all in on those cyclical sectors, equal weighting across the board. I see. when the Fed is tightening, raising rates. you switch entirely to the defensive sectors. Again, equal waiting.

• Speaker #0

  So basically, we're just riding the wave of cheap money when it's flowing. Yeah. And then battening down the hatches when the Fed starts taking away the punch bowl.

• Speaker #1

  Exactly.

• Speaker #0

  Sounds simple enough, but did it actually work?

• Speaker #1

  That's where it gets interesting. They back-tested this using daily data from 1973 to 2005, a pretty significant period. And guess what? What? This straightforward strategy actually outperformed both a benchmark portfolio that was equally weighted across all sectors all the time and the overall market.

• Speaker #0

  Hold on. So just switching between these two groups of sectors based on the Fed's moves, just holding a basic mix of everything, A&D, the S&P 500.

• Speaker #1

  Exactly.

• Speaker #0

  Color me intrigued. What kind of outperformance are we talking about here?

• Speaker #1

  We're talking an average annual return that was over 3% higher than both the benchmark and the market.

• Speaker #0

  Wow.

• Speaker #1

  What's even more impressive is that The risk measured by standard deviation was similar or even lower than the benchmarks. So more return for the same or less risk, that's the holy grail of investing, right? Yeah,

• Speaker #0

  that is pretty impressive, especially for such a simple strategy. But wait, if everyone used this now, won't it become less effective? Yeah. Like, isn't this secret sauce going to get diluted if all the algo traders jump on board?

• Speaker #1

  That's a great question. And it's always a concern when any trading strategy becomes widely known. However, there are a few things to consider. First, the market is constantly evolving. Right. The economic conditions and relationships between sectors and interest rates might shift over time. OK. Second, remember this back test covered over three decades.

• Speaker #0

  Right. If this strategy was easily arbitraged away, wouldn't we have seen that happen already in such a long period? Hmm.

• Speaker #1

  That's a good point. There's always a risk that any strategy can stop working as effectively. But the fact that it held up for so long is encouraging. So they found this sector rotation strategy. delivered a solid 3% extra per year. But what's the magic behind it? Why does this work so well?

• Speaker #0

  The secret sauce seems to be the strategy's performance during those restrictive periods. When the Fed is tightening and the market is generally shaky, this rotation portfolio, by going defensive, actually manages to almost double the return of the benchmark and the market during those times. It's like having a built-in cushion for when the market gets bumpy.

• Speaker #1

  Okay, this is making more sense now. It's not just about chasing the high returns during easing periods. It's about mitigating losses during those tighter periods when everyone else is panicking and selling off. Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. But how often were they actually making these sector switches? Were they constantly monitoring the Fed and making trades every other week? Not at all. The beauty of this approach is its simplicity. Over those 33 years, they only rebalanced the portfolio about 14 times. That's roughly once every two years. So you're not constantly trading, incurring fees and stressing over every little Fed announcement.

• Speaker #0

  OK, so low maintenance A&D, potentially high returns. This is starting to sound too good to be true. But hold on. They tested this over a specific period. What if we break that 33 year period in half? Do the results hold up?

• Speaker #1

  That's where the robustness of the strategy really shines. The researchers actually tested that. They split the period in half. And guess what? The outperformance was consistent across both halves. This wasn't just a fluke of a specific market cycle. This simple sector rotation strategy consistently delivered the goods. Wow. Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. And it really underscores the point that sometimes the simplest strategies can be the most effective. But let's dig a little deeper into the nuances of the strategy. Remember those portfolio weights we talked about earlier?

• Speaker #0

  Yeah, the ones based on the efficient frontier and different risk levels. I'm guessing those weren't just equally weighted across the board.

• Speaker #1

  You got it. The researchers didn't just stop at the broad sector level. They actually calculated portfolio weights for 30 different positions on that Markowitz efficient frontier to see how the ideal mix would change based on both your risk tolerance and the Fed stance.

• Speaker #0

  OK, so walk me through this. How did those optimal portfolios look different during those expansive versus restricted periods?

• Speaker #1

  Well, during those expansive periods when the Fed is easing, things get interesting. If you're a high risk investor, the optimal portfolio actually becomes heavily concentrated in just TWO cyclical sectors, cyclical consumer goods and financials.

• Speaker #0

  So basically, if you're all about chasing those high returns and the Fed is making it rain cheap money, load up on those two sectors. Sounds risky, but potentially very rewarding.

• Speaker #1

  Exactly. But here's where it gets even more nuanced. As you move down the risk spectrum, meaning you're less comfortable with big swings, the optimal portfolio starts to shift. Those non-cyclical sectors like utilities become more prominent. It's like dialing down the volatility by adding in some ballast.

• Speaker #0

  So it's not just cyclical good, defensive bad. It's about finding the right mix for your risk appetite, even within the broad strategy,

• Speaker #1

  right? Precisely. Now, when we look at the restrictive periods when the Fed is tightening, things get really interesting. The optimal portfolios at all risk levels completely avoid those cyclical sectors.

• Speaker #0

  Wow. So no matter how much risk you're willing to take when the Fed's tightening, it's time to batten down the hatches and go full defensive. No exceptions.

• Speaker #1

  No exceptions. It really reinforces how crucial it is to be aware of those shifts in monetary policy. It's not just about choosing the right sectors. It's about understanding when to be in those sectors.

• Speaker #0

  So this is going beyond just basic sector rotation. We're talking about active management based on the Fed's actions. But let's break it down even further. The paper looked at individual sector performance during these periods, right? What did they find?

• Speaker #1

  This is where the rubber meets the road. During those expansive periods, the non-cyclicals still did okay, averaging around a 14.65% return. But the cyclicals, they absolutely exploded, averaging a whopping 20.27%.

• Speaker #0

  Okay, so those easing periods are really where the cyclical sectors shine. Makes sense, everyone's feeling good, businesses are borrowing and investing. But what about when the party ends and the Fed starts taking away the punch bowl?

• Speaker #1

  Well, that's when things get ugly for the cyclicals. They took a nosedive, averaging a meager 2.25 percent return during restrictive periods. The non-cyclicals, on the other hand, still managed a decent 10.24 percent.

• Speaker #0

  Wow, that's a massive difference. It really highlights how sensitive those cyclical sectors are to the Fed's actions. But this is all still looking at those broad sectors. What about the individual companies within those sectors? Did they find any Nuggets of wisdom there.

• Speaker #1

  This is where it gets really interesting for the algo traders out there. The paper actually dives into the performance of individual stocks within those sectors. And yes, they found some fascinating insights.

• Speaker #0

  OK, I'm all ears. What did they uncover? Give me some of those juicy details.

• Speaker #1

  Well, even within a sector like, let's say, tech, there were significant differences in performance during those expansive versus restrictive periods. Some companies were far more sensitive to interest rate changes than others.

• Speaker #0

  So this strategy is more than just sector rotation. It's about identifying those specific companies within those sectors that are best positioned to benefit from or weather the Fed's actions. This is where the real alpha potential lies.

• Speaker #1

  You're getting it. It's about understanding the nuances within each sector and not just blindly investing in broad ETFs or indexes. It's about finding those hidden gems that are truly aligned with the prevailing monetary conditions.

• Speaker #0

  This is starting to sound a lot more complex than just following the Fed's lead. How do you even begin to identify those companies? It sounds like you need a Ph.D. in economics, A&D, access to all sorts of proprietary data.

• Speaker #1

  Don't worry, it's not as daunting as it sounds. The paper offers some guidance on this front. They suggest using a combination of fundamental analysis, technical analysis, A&D macroeconomic analysis.

• Speaker #0

  Okay, so you're looking at the company's financials, its stock price trends, and the overall economic landscape. It's about using all the tools at your disposal to paint a complete picture.

• Speaker #1

  Exactly. And remember, this paper was published back in 2006. The world of algo trading has come a long way since then. With today's advanced algorithms and readily available data, identifying these companies is even more achievable.

• Speaker #0

  So you're saying that with the right tools and knowledge, even retail investors can potentially implement this strategy and find those winning stocks. That's pretty empowering.

• Speaker #1

  Absolutely. And that's what we're all about here at Papers. backtest empowering you with the knowledge and tools to take control of your investments and potentially outperform the market.

• Speaker #0

  Exactly. Right. This isn't a get rich quick scheme. It's a framework for thinking about how to align your investments with the broader economic forces at play. And that brings us to another crucial point. The researchers didn't just look at this strategy in isolation. They also tested its robustness.

• Speaker #1

  Okay. So they kicked the tires pretty good. What did those robustness checks tell us?

• Speaker #0

  Well, they wanted to make sure the results weren't just a fluke. Right. Specific to that one 33-year period. You're right. So they used different timeframes. Okay. Different ways of classifying those 10 sectors.

• Speaker #1

  And guess what? The sector rotation strategy consistently outperformed.

• Speaker #0

  That is impressive. Yeah. It's like this simple idea has some real staying power regardless of how you slice and dice the data. Yeah. But, you know, this paper was published a while back. Have there been any attempts to replicate or build upon these findings?

• Speaker #1

  That's where things get really interesting for the algo enthusiasts out there. This paper has become a bit of a classic in the quant world. Okay. And there have been quite a few follow-up studies. Interesting. Some have tried applying the same concepts to international markets. Some have incorporated more sophisticated methods. sophisticated indicators like momentum or valuation. I see. And some have even explored using it as a halving tool to reduce portfolio risk.

• Speaker #0

  Okay, so this paper is not just gathering dust on a shelf. It's actually sparked a whole wave of research and innovation in the algo trading space.

• Speaker #1

  That's the beauty of academic research. It's a springboard for new ideas and strategies. And the fact that this relatively simple strategy has inspired so much further exploration speaks volumes about its potential.

• Speaker #0

  So our listeners could actually take these ideas and run with them, potentially building their own custom algorithms based on this framework. That's pretty exciting.

• Speaker #1

  Absolutely. Imagine incorporating machine learning to predict Fed decisions with even higher accuracy or using sentiment analysis to identify which companies within a sector are most likely to benefit from using. The possibilities are endless.

• Speaker #0

  Now you're getting me fired up. This is going way beyond just basic sector rotation. We're talking about harnessing the power of algorithms to gain a real edge in the market.

• Speaker #1

  Exactly. And that's what we're all about here at Papers. With backtests bridging the gap between academic research and practical application, we want to empower our listeners to take these ideas, experiment, and potentially create their own winning strategies.

• Speaker #0

  Now, before we wrap up, any final words of wisdom for our listeners who might be inspired to dive into this sector rotation world? Where should they start?

• Speaker #1

  Well, first, make sure you truly understand the underlying mechanisms. Don't just blindly follow the rules. Grasp, W-H-Y this works, the economic forces at play. Second, get your hands dirty with the data. Replicate these back tests yourself. Experiment with different time periods, sectors, indicators. The more you explore, the deeper your understanding will become.

• Speaker #0

  And remember, don't think this is the be-all end-all of algo trading. This is just one piece of the puzzle. Keep exploring, keep learning, and who knows, maybe you'll be the when publishing the next groundbreaking research paper.

• Speaker #1

  That's the spirit. And that brings us to the end of our deep dive into this fascinating sector rotation strategy.

• Speaker #0

  Thank you for tuning in to Papers with Backtest podcast. We hope today's deep dive gave you some useful insights. Join us next time as we break down more research. And for more papers and backtests, find us at https.paperswithbacktest.com. Happy trading.