EM food inflation: Menu of unappetising policy choices

Description

With:

Jeffrey Schultz, Chief Middle East and Africa Economist | BNP Paribas South Africa Branch

Niccolo Carrara, Economist, Emerging Markets | BNP Paribas London Branch

This podcast was recorded 2 May 2023

EM food prices look set to remain well above levels consistent with inflation targets even as base effects suppress year-on-year rates of price growth.
We expect inelastic food demand, supported by post-pandemic recoveries, to combine with supply risks, including export restrictions from large producers and constraints on energy-dependent agricultural inputs.
As food prices matter a great deal for EM inflation, central banks face a tough time taming inflation expectations.
Central banks’ task will be even harder if the risk of social turmoil resulting from elevated food prices tempts governments to step up fiscal subsidies.
Our food vulnerability indicator highlights particular potential for pressure in pockets of CEEMEA and EM Asia.
Fiscal responses to high food prices would also risk driving up risk premia as markets reassess EM fiscal sustainability amid higher debt-servicing costs.

For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Description

With:

Jeffrey Schultz, Chief Middle East and Africa Economist | BNP Paribas South Africa Branch

Niccolo Carrara, Economist, Emerging Markets | BNP Paribas London Branch

This podcast was recorded 2 May 2023

EM food prices look set to remain well above levels consistent with inflation targets even as base effects suppress year-on-year rates of price growth.
We expect inelastic food demand, supported by post-pandemic recoveries, to combine with supply risks, including export restrictions from large producers and constraints on energy-dependent agricultural inputs.
As food prices matter a great deal for EM inflation, central banks face a tough time taming inflation expectations.
Central banks’ task will be even harder if the risk of social turmoil resulting from elevated food prices tempts governments to step up fiscal subsidies.
Our food vulnerability indicator highlights particular potential for pressure in pockets of CEEMEA and EM Asia.
Fiscal responses to high food prices would also risk driving up risk premia as markets reassess EM fiscal sustainability amid higher debt-servicing costs.

For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

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