With: 

Marcelo Carvalho, Head of Global Emerging Markets Research  

Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, Economist, Emerging Markets

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 05 May  2022) 

The likelihood of significant disruption, or even a halt in, oil and gas
flows from Russia to Europe has risen substantially, in our view, as the
Russia–Ukraine war drags on.

We expect the gas supply to EU nations rejecting Russia’s new ‘roubles-for-gas’
scheme to be affected, with Gazprom’s flows to these countries likely to be
halted in the next few days.

​​​​​​​The reduced flow of Russian gas to the EU over winter suggests the immediate
impacts may not be too damaging, though reserves may fall further.

The supply of Russian oil is less likely to be disrupted in the same way, with
a EU-wide plan in the offing to cut these imports.  

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