Description
In this episode of The Retail Pilot, host Ken Pilot welcomes Jan Rogers Kniffen, CEO of J Rogers Kniffen Worldwide and retail industry expert, to discuss the current state and future of retail. Key Topics Discussed: Post-Election Retail Bounce
- Jan predicts a post-election retail bounce, as seen in previous presidential election years
- Discretionary retail is currently running at zero inflation, making it attractive to consumers
Fourth Quarter Outlook
- Despite potential headwinds, Jan expects a strong fourth quarter
- Forecasts 3.5-4% sales growth, similar to last year
- Believes discretionary goods will perform well due to their perceived value compared to inflating services
Walmart vs. Target
- Walmart is outperforming Target significantly
- Walmart is attracting higher-income customers, traditionally Target's demographic
- Walmart's focus on in-store experience and competitive pricing is paying off
Off-Price Retail Sector
- TJ Maxx ranked as the fifth-best retailer in America by Jan
- Concerns about over-saturation in the off-price sector
- Potential challenges for off-price retailers as the market matures
Department Store Future
- Predicts most department stores will go private by the end of 2026
- Cites lower interest rates and increased real estate values as factors facilitating buyouts
- Mentions Nordstrom, Macy's, and Kohl's as potential candidates for privatization
Tariffs and Manufacturing
- Discussion on the impact of potential tariffs, especially on goods from China
- Many retailers have already reduced their exposure to Chinese manufacturing
- Predicts that moderate tariff increases might be absorbed by Chinese manufacturers rather than passed on to consumers
Notable Quotes:
"May the bounce be with you." - Jan Rogers Kniffen on the post-election retail bounce
"I think it's come down to who can do this stuff as opposed to where you happen to be." - Jan Rogers Kniffen on retail performance
Closing Thoughts:
Jan expresses optimism for the retail sector going into the fourth quarter and 2025, despite potential challenges. He emphasizes the importance of execution and adaptation in the evolving retail landscape.
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