Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 June 2023)  Analysts looking for an easing of lending conditions in the 2nd quarter may be in for a surprise based on the latest banking conditions survey from the 11th Fed district. Ongoing financial sector stress poses a brisk head wind to economic activity and may very well factor into monetary policymakers’ assessment of the appropriate fed funds terminal rate.  For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 13 June 2023)  Water has been rising on the agenda of sustainable investors this year. We address some of the main questions/challenges in this episode. Access to clean freshwater has generally been taken for granted, leading to wastage and pollution. However, with increasing supply chain transparency and greater focus on water quality, practices are coming under closer scrutiny. A number of opportunities exist in the space, with room for innovation throughout the water cycle, adoption of circular business models, and public-private partnerships.  For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Niccolo Carrara, Emerging Markets Economist  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 07 June 2023)  Our property update suggests there are still downside risks to house prices globally, especially in a scenario of tighter-than-expected financial conditions. Residential housing prices remain elevated in level terms, hurting affordability and investor sentiment. Our indicator suggests housing unaffordability is particularly acute in Southeast Asia, with a potential knock-on political and socio-economic effect. Economies with high levels of household debt and a large share of it issued at floating rates, such as in South Korea, are also more vulnerable to higher mortgage burdens, and at greater risk of a wave of defaults. With rate cuts an obvious prerequisite for lower mortgage rates, demand for borrowing is likely to weaken further in developed markets, where central banks have not yet completed their tightening cycles. For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Jeffrey Schultz, Chief Economist, Middle East and Africa  Nic Borain, Politics Analyst, South Africa  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 07 June 2023)  South Africa is accused by US ambassador of helping to arm Russia, as several negative risk (loadshedding) spike     For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb  For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Mario Castro, Senior FX & Rates Strategist  A weak dollar trend coupled with attractive carry has made LatAm markets attractive again. We expect the trend to continue but with some bumps down the road.  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 24 May 2023)  For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb     For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research  Megan Dale, Sustainability Research Analyst   Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst   BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 18 May 2023)  In this episode, we look into the latest developments in Sustainable Finance, reviewing: the progress seen at Earth Day, 2023 sustainable bond issuance and conclusions from the recent pilot testing of the TNFD.   For more information, please refer to : https://bnpp.lk/EyODgb   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With:  Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US  Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US   Andrew Husby CFA, Senior Economist, US   BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 May 2023)  The latest data indicated banks tightened standards to an even greater degree than an already-elevated intensity at the end of last year and across all major categories. The breadth of tightening was only surpassed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic.  The BNP Paribas US Financial Conditions Index, a quantitative tool to signal the relative restriction of financing conditions facing investors and the real economy in the US, currently augurs sharply slowing growth in economic activity in the second half of the year, to a level that is broadly consistent with our forecast for recession in H2 2023.  Inflation continues to run hot, but the increasingly well-defined peak in core services (and core services ex-shelter) should be welcome news to policymakers looking for further justification to pause rate increases and assess incoming information. For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With:  Jeffrey Schultz, Chief Middle East and Africa Economist | BNP Paribas South Africa Branch Niccolo Carrara, Economist, Emerging Markets | BNP Paribas London Branch This podcast was recorded 2 May 2023 EM food prices look set to remain well above levels consistent with inflation targets even as base effects suppress year-on-year rates of price growth.  We expect inelastic food demand, supported by post-pandemic recoveries, to combine with supply risks, including export restrictions from large producers and constraints on energy-dependent agricultural inputs.  As food prices matter a great deal for EM inflation, central banks face a tough time taming inflation expectations.  Central banks’ task will be even harder if the risk of social turmoil resulting from elevated food prices tempts governments to step up fiscal subsidies.  Our food vulnerability indicator highlights particular potential for pressure in pockets of CEEMEA and EM Asia.  Fiscal responses to high food prices would also risk driving up risk premia as markets reassess EM fiscal sustainability amid higher debt-servicing costs. For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notic  Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With:  Marcelo Carvalho,  Global Head of Economics Dani Stoilova, Economist, Europe Mariana Monteiro, Economist, Europe Megan Dale, Sustainability Research Analyst    BNP Paribas London Branch  | Global Markets (Recorded 25 April 2023)  The proposed Green Deal Industrial Plan would be net positive for the EU outlook, in our view, supporting private investment and new green and clean-tech jobs. Coming on top of the NextGenerationEU programme and other existing funds, the EU has the means to compete with the US in the green transition. A subsidy race or ‘green trade war’ looks unlikely, due in part to the prospect of a limited US–EU trade deal. However, we think the EU could do more to improve the efficiency of its funding, to address perceptions that it is on the back foot relative to the US, and to maintain cohesion between its member states. To the extent that this is another force supporting a trend of reshoring, the overall effect is likely to be inflationary over the next few years. At a sector level, we think EU plans stand to benefit solar in particular, but firms will require greater detail around these subsidies before committing to significant investments. For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With:  Jason Lui, Markets 360 APAC Coordinator and Head of APAC EQDStrategy   Jacqueline Rong, Economist, Europe   Christopher B Li, Credit Trading Desk Analyst   BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 11 April 2023)  China’s economy and banking system are largely insulated from recent banking stress in DM countries, in our view.   Chinese policymakers’ campaigns against financial risks in the past five years and the PBoC’s cautious monetary policy stance have improved the health of the country’s banking sector.   The spillover of global credit stress to China’s banking system currently looks limited, thanks to abundant local liquidity and the market-friendly regulatory actions, though the property sector remains the weak link in accessing refinancing.   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.