With:  Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA, Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy Ankit Gheedia, CFA, Head of Equity & Derivatives Strategy, Europe BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 24 May 2022)    Challenging the stock market adage, Sell in May, go away and come back on St Leger’s day, European equities have enjoyed a seasonal bounce from May into June in recent years, due, in our view, to investors closing their short positions on European equities before the less liquid summer months. The SX5E front month open interest is approaching Covid highs and we believe this indicates congested short positioning in European equities. Near term, we expect shorts to unwind ahead of the summer holidays and see potential for short-term upside in SX5E. For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf      Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With Jason Lui, Head of East Asia Strategy Ju Wang, Head of Greater China FX & Rates Strategy   BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 13 May 2022)  While the recent RMB weakness bears some resemblance to the H2 2015 devaluation cycle, we believe the Chinese equities should fare better than previous RMB depreciation cycles. We expect the RMB to act as a shock-absorber rather than constrain macro policy, with a weaker RMB eventually helping to loosen monetary conditions.   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With:  Marcelo Carvalho, Head of Global Emerging Markets Research   Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, Economist, Emerging Markets BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 05 May  2022)  The likelihood of significant disruption, or even a halt in, oil and gas flows from Russia to Europe has risen substantially, in our view, as the Russia–Ukraine war drags on. We expect the gas supply to EU nations rejecting Russia’s new ‘roubles-for-gas’ scheme to be affected, with Gazprom’s flows to these countries likely to be halted in the next few days. ​​​​​​​The reduced flow of Russian gas to the EU over winter suggests the immediate impacts may not be too damaging, though reserves may fall further. The supply of Russian oil is less likely to be disrupted in the same way, with a EU-wide plan in the offing to cut these imports.   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With:  Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist  Spyros Andreopoulos, Senior Economist, Europe BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 04 May 2022)  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is inflicting a terrible cost in terms of lives lost and human suffering. While the war is still ongoing, in this podcast we consider how its impact might reshape the global economy in the years to come.      For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With:  Calvin Tse,  Head of Americas Developed Markets Strategy Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 April 2022)  With hiking cycles under way in the G10, we look into which rates matters most for FX   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With:  Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360 Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist  Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 05 April 2022)   With less than a week to go until the first round of the election on Sunday 10 April, we think the chances of a surprise outcome have risen.   Opinion polls continue to point to the first round resulting in a repeat of the 2017 face-off between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.   But the gap between Macron and Le Pen in opinion polls has narrowed, voter turnout is expected to be low and there is a high number of undecided voters.   A Macron re-election remains the most likely outcome, in our view, but our degree of conviction in this outcome has fallen in recent weeks.   We look at market implications and risk premium   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With Jason Lui, Head of East Asia Strategy Hiroshi Shiraishi, Senior Economist, Japan  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 31 March 2022)    Under the risk scenario of persistent downward pressure on the JPY and upward pressure on interest rates, we would expect the Bank of Japan to widen its yield curve control (YCC) on the 10y JGB yield to +/-0.5%. However, we do not expect such a move unless USDJPY rises above 125 and threatens to challenge 130.  For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With:  Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA,  Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 28 March  2022)  In this podcast we explore foreign investor buying of US assets. We find that most debt inflows come from the Eurozone and Japan. For institutional investors, we expect a slowing in eurozone investor buying of USD fixed income. For foreign holdings of US equities, any rebalancing lower of US equity exposure could result in substantial USD selling. Our assessment of the outlook for cross-border flow dynamics is consistent with upside risks to EURUSD.    For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With Jason Lui, Head of East Asia Strategy Ju Wang, Head of Greater China FX & Rates Strategy  BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 24 March 2022)    Diverging monetary policy between China and US is the dominant theme for China’s FX and rates. We expect the RMB to be resilient in Q1, but weaken to 6.60 into year-end on carry compression, slower exports and rising outbound investments into HK. China rates remain a rare shelter in a world of high inflation.   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf    Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist Amarjot Sidhu, Economist, UK and Europe BNP Paribas London Branch  | Global Markets (Recorded 24 March 2022)    With the economic picture weakening, there is an increasing focus on fiscal policy and we discuss why this is the case in this podcast. In particular, we look at how governments have been providing support, whether the current shock changes the fiscal debate in Europe and the implications of all of this for central banks.   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.