https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US Since Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, the United States has massively increased its tariffs. As a result, trade flows to the US have been disrupted, but has this affected the dynamics of global trade? And above all, are we heading towards a major restructuring of global trade? Fins out more here: EcoPerspectives — Advanced Economies | 3rd Quarter 2025– Economic Research – BNP Paribas (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Publication/23418/en-US) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

As we enter the second half of the year, and after a first half marked in particular on the economic front by the tariff war initiated by the United States, we suggest that we pause and look back for a moment. This will allow us to understand the dynamics that have shaped our economies over the last six months. It will also help us to identify to what extent and in what way they will impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year. What scenario should we expect? Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

To highlight the publication of the second quarter issue of EcoPerspectives Emerging Economies, three members of the Emerging Economies team speak in ‘MacroWaves’: Christine Peltier, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine and Lucas Plé. This is an opportunity to take stock of the specific challenges facing countries. In this podcast, our economists review the consequences of US tariff increases on global growth, the dynamics of international trade reconfiguration, and the reorganisation of value chains. We will analyse the effects of these upheavals on emerging countries. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this new Podcast, we take a look at the short- to medium-term economic outlook for the major advanced economies, analysing the impact of trade tensions, the room for manoeuvre available and the expected economic dynamics. #growth #inflation #monetarypolicy #us #eurozone #uk Reading advice : Équipe Économies Avancées | EcoPerspectives — Économies Avancées | 2ème trimestre 2025 – Etudes Economiques – BNP Paribas (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Publication/23193/fr-FR) Sound credit : Extact from the speech of Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF, during the IMF World Economic Outlook' press briefing, April 2025. # Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, April 2025 - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9mltmK4EOI) Extract from Jérome Powell's speech at the May 7, 2025 FOMC press conference. # FOMC Press Conference May 7, 2025 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oX4RCJJXAM) Extact from the speech by Christine Lagarde, Président of the ECB, at the announcement of the ECB's latest monetary policy decisions, April 17, 2025. # President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 17 April 2025 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgm5H6UUbS0) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this Audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac discusses selfemployment in France. It has been growing again for almost 20 years, particularly in household services, but also in business services. In France, which has created nearly 420000 jobs a year over the last 5 years, self-employment has represented almost one job creation out of 5. Economic Research Website (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this Audiobrief, Guillaume Derrien discusses recent evolution of the European Union's trade balance. The latter moved back to a surplus in 2023. Despite China’s ramping up to higher value-added sectors, the EU trade surplus in traditionally buoyant industries (pharmaceuticals, automotive) remains at historically-high levels. Economic Research Website (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac describes France’s trade deficit for 2023 main drivers. In addition to a deficit linked to imports of hydrocarbons and a structural deficit reflecting the country’s de-industrialisation, it is also driven by France’s investment in the needs arising from the ecological and digital transition and the electrification of the car industry.   Economic Research Website (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the second podcast on geopolitical uncertainty and its economic consequences, Daniel Morris and William De Vijlder look more closely at the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on firms, households and financial markets. Economic Research Website (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In two podcasts Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist of BNP Paribas Asset Management discusses with William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the economy. In this first podcast, they look at economic and geopolitical uncertainty, why it matters and how it can be measured. Clic here to consult the graphic (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/Episode-1-Geopolitical-Uncertainty-Economic-Consequences-12/19/2023,c40181) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the second and last episode of the series on central banks and their fight against inflation, Andrew Craig and William de Vijlder are looking beyond the peak and discuss what will come next. Among the questions are: how long will central banks hold rates at these levels? How long will they plateau at these current levels? what come after that? Economic Research Website (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.