In this series of two podcasts Andrew Craig, co-head of the Investments Insight Center at BNP Paribas Asset Management, interviewed William de Vijlder, group chief economist of the Economic Research of BNP Paribas regarding the central banks policies to fight inflation. Among the questions answered in the first episode are:Are we at the peak or can we expect further rates hikes? Is the inflation going to declines? at which pace? Economic Research Website (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this new AudioBrief, Guillaume Derrien, economist within the OECD team, discusses the close relationship between global growth and the evolution of international trade. Economic Research's website, BNP Paribas (https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US) Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this final episode, William De Vijlder analyses the responses of European governments to the crisis generated by the pandemic. How to stimulate and maintain economic growth whilst at the same time developing an environmental policy that meets the challenges of climate change? The “Next Generation EU” plan recently launched by the European Commission is discussed from this viewpoint. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the second episode, François Doux and William De Vijlder discuss the profound social changes that the pandemic has brought about. The virus has put health at the centre of people’s worlds, and stimulated new interest in environmental issues. William De Vijlder explains why these changes in behaviour and mindset could prove to be long-lasting. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the first episode of this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder and François Doux will look at the concept of externalities to consider how lockdowns, by limiting human and economic activity considerably, have affected the environment. They also examine the notion of “green swan” risks; climate-related risks that could threaten the economy. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the final episode, William De Vijlder turns to the psychological factors in play when it comes to inflation. We will see that inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation are three very different notions. William also looks at relative prices and absolute prices and discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected prices and the nature of demand. Lastly, he will look at the possible impact of the pandemic on the strategy of central banks in terms of monetary policy over the coming years. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this second episode, William De Vijlder turns to the real economy and examines the factors that could produce inflation. He draws the distinction between headline inflation and core inflation. Could core inflation, which is affected by tensions in the labour market and the markets for goods and services but also by inflation expectations, see an acceleration under current circumstances? William De Vijlder also looks at the supply side shock and the disruption of global value chains as a result of the pandemic. We will see how changes to these value chains could produce inflation. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the first episode, William De Vijlder emphasizes that the risk of an increase in inflation is high on the list of frequently asked questions by clients. To tackle the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy, central banks have relaxed their monetary policies and increased the size of their balance sheets by making massive injections of liquidity into the system. For Monetarists (followers of the Chicago School, founded by Milton Friedman), this increase in money supply is the root cause of inflation. Will this theory be borne out in the current economic context? Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In response to the pandemic, many governments took a vast range of measures to curb the impact of the pandemic on the economy. In this final episode, William De Vijlder shows how the state remains the “balance sheet of last resort” in the event of an economic crisis. He also reviews the current situation of public finances and what this implies in terms of dynamics of the debt/GDP ratio. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Central banks have played a key role in supporting the economy during the pandemic-induced recession. To do so, they increased the size of their balance sheet. William De Vijlder explains the mechanisms governing this increase in their balance sheet. Is there any limit on how far it might go? He also explains the concept of direct monetary financing. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.