In the first episode of this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder and François Doux will look at the concept of externalities to consider how lockdowns, by limiting human and economic activity considerably, have affected the environment. They also examine the notion of “green swan” risks; climate-related risks that could threaten the economy. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the final episode, William De Vijlder turns to the psychological factors in play when it comes to inflation. We will see that inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation are three very different notions. William also looks at relative prices and absolute prices and discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected prices and the nature of demand. Lastly, he will look at the possible impact of the pandemic on the strategy of central banks in terms of monetary policy over the coming years. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this second episode, William De Vijlder turns to the real economy and examines the factors that could produce inflation. He draws the distinction between headline inflation and core inflation. Could core inflation, which is affected by tensions in the labour market and the markets for goods and services but also by inflation expectations, see an acceleration under current circumstances? William De Vijlder also looks at the supply side shock and the disruption of global value chains as a result of the pandemic. We will see how changes to these value chains could produce inflation. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the first episode, William De Vijlder emphasizes that the risk of an increase in inflation is high on the list of frequently asked questions by clients. To tackle the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy, central banks have relaxed their monetary policies and increased the size of their balance sheets by making massive injections of liquidity into the system. For Monetarists (followers of the Chicago School, founded by Milton Friedman), this increase in money supply is the root cause of inflation. Will this theory be borne out in the current economic context? Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In response to the pandemic, many governments took a vast range of measures to curb the impact of the pandemic on the economy. In this final episode, William De Vijlder shows how the state remains the “balance sheet of last resort” in the event of an economic crisis. He also reviews the current situation of public finances and what this implies in terms of dynamics of the debt/GDP ratio. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Central banks have played a key role in supporting the economy during the pandemic-induced recession. To do so, they increased the size of their balance sheet. William De Vijlder explains the mechanisms governing this increase in their balance sheet. Is there any limit on how far it might go? He also explains the concept of direct monetary financing. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The second episode focuses on non-financial companies. As well as having a considerable impact on their short-term (cash) and long-term assets (imperative of aligning their operational model with new requirements in terms of supply chain resilience), the Covid-19 crisis has obliged businesses to increase their indebtedness. This confronts them with a dilemma whether to strengthen their balance sheet by paying back debt or to maintain a high degree of leverage an invest. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the first episode, William De Vijlder takes a look at households’ balance sheets by considering how assets and liabilities are influenced by the pandemic. We will also see how the loss of human capital due to the deterioration of the labour market plays a key role in the post-pandemic economic environment. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the third podcast, William De Vijlder shows how a central bank’s persistently accommodating monetary policy to bring inflation in line with the target can have a negative impact over the long term, threatening both growth and financial stability. In case of a crisis, central banks no longer have much room to intervene, since they have used up their manoeuvring room in the pursuit of their inflation target. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

How to strike the right balance between inflation and financial stability has been a source of debate for decades. In this second podcast, William De Vijlder shows how the central banks give priority to inflation targets over financial stability. He uses a few examples to illustrate how central banks will opt to hold a steady course even when confronted with the risk of instability, which is often caused by financial market turmoil. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.